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Topic: Projected Football Record (Read 3,435 times)

k5james
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Projected Football Record
« Thread Started on Jun 6, 2012, 11:32am »

Heres my prediction based on a formula put together by the guy at Mgoblog using statistics from footballoutsiders. It takes into account statistics from the prior year, number of returning starters, recruiting rankings and coaching changes. It's not a perfect formula (doesn't account for special teams) but what the hell else are we going to talk about in this dead period.

I did this last year prior to the season and hit every game except Wyoming. (didn't do the bowl game)

Here goes...

Our projected offensive ranking is 73 and our projected defensive ranking is 64.

@ Washington L (0-1)
O #34 D #78

They look to be significantly better on offense and we only project to be moderately better on defense. That combined with the fact that we are playing up in Seattle means a loss is very likely based on the numbers.

Army W (1-1)
O #84 D #74

We project to be slightly better on both O and D and are playing at home so this should be a W.

North Dakota W (2-1)

There is no data kept for FCS schools but its safe to say this should be a W fairly handily.

SJSU W (3-1)
O #94 D #68

We project to be significantly better on offense and slightly better on defense and are playing at home so I suspect this game should be a fairly easy game.

@ CSU Fresno W (4-1)
O #49 D #90

They project to be significantly better on O, while we project to be significantly better on D. They get us at home, while we get them early in the season with a new staff. This one is a toss up statistically but I'll go the homer route and take SDSU.

Hawaii W (5-1)
O #79 D #101

We project to be slightly better on O and significantly better on D. They'll be breaking in a new staff and have been horrible playing away from the Rock historically. We should win this one pretty soundly.

CSU W (6-1)
O #71 D #83

They project to be slightly better on O and we project to be significantly better on D and we get them at home riding what should be a five game winning streak. I like our chances to win solidly.

@ UNR W (7-1)
O #56 D #87

They project to be significantly better on O and we project to be significantly better on D. They get us at home but Mackay Stadium isn't exactly Michigan Stadium. This is another game that's a statistical toss up and I'll again go the homer route and pick SDSU to win it. (Yeah, I'm a homer, so what)

UNLV W (8-1)
O #80 D #96

We project to be slightly better on O and significantly better on D. We get them at home. This isn't basketball, so this should be a fairly easy W.

@ BSU L (8-2)
O #62 D #50

They project to be moderately better on both O and D and get us at home on "the blue" so this one is easy to call. Our 8 game winning streak comes to an end.

AFA W (9-2)
O #75 D #85

We project to be slightly better on O and significantly better on D and we get them at home. This should be a W to get us back on track.

@ Wyoming W (10-2)
O #80 D #90

We project to be slightly better on O and significantly better on D. We should win ths one fairly handily to have our best season in decades.

Realistically we'll probably split the toss up games and finish 9-3 but I don't think 10-2 is out of the question and these statistics support that.